6 posts
Post-earnings deep dive on Nebius, CoreWeave, and IREN. Multi-model valuation (EV/Sales, EV/ARR, SOTP, cycle scorecard) yields 12M PTs of NBIS $245 (+18%), CRWV $115 (+3%), IREN $62 (+8% base / +1,200% bull). Balanced portfolio: NBIS 45 / CRWV 35 / IREN 20.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk compared across three frameworks: revenue growth, P/S normalization, and SOTP. Top Pick SK Hynix (+42%), Samsung's memory implied P/S 5.19x (-22% discount vs SK), and Micron's 16.7x peer-leading premium.
Cloudflare (NET) beat revenue +34% YoY yet crashed -24.3% in a single session. We decompose the 1,100 layoff, GM compression, and four contradictions, and lay out our 12M PT $225.
Datadog (DDOG) posted a +32% revenue beat, raised FY26 guide by +7pt (19→26%), and re-accelerated its non-AI cohort, driving a +31% single-session surge (+39% cumulative). Fundamentals 11/11 green; here's how we get to a 12M PT of $230.
DigitalOcean (DOCN) printed a double beat on revenue (+22%), AI ARR up +221%, and lifted FY27 revenue guidance from ~30% to 50%+, sending the stock +40% in a single session. We assess the legitimacy of the +237% YTD, +413% 1-year run and derive a 12M price target of $185.
SanDisk (SNDK) posted +251% YoY revenue ($5.95B), 78.4% Non-GAAP GM, and $42B locked in via NBM multi-year contracts, sending shares +46.8% in 6 sessions post-earnings. We analyze the NBM model and our $1,800 12M PT.